Every quarter, the IPA Bellwether Report gives us one of the clearest snapshots of business confidence in the UK marketing sector. It surveys around 300 senior marketers responsible for billions of pounds of annual spend and is widely regarded as one of the strongest indicators of future marketing activity.
The latest report landed on my desk recently and one statistic immediately stood out.
Despite everything currently happening in the world, “UK businesses increased their marketing budgets at the fastest rate seen in almost two years”.
That finding alone deserves attention.
Over the last twelve months, we’ve been bombarded with headlines about inflation, rising employment costs, geopolitical instability, supply chain concerns and slowing economic growth. UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026 have now been revised down to just 0.5%, business investment forecasts have weakened considerably, and employment confidence remains fragile. On the surface, these aren’t the conditions that would normally encourage companies to spend more money.
Yet that’s exactly what’s happening.
The Bellwether data shows a net balance of +7.3% of businesses increased their marketing budgets during Q1 2026, marking the strongest period of growth since 2024. More interestingly, this wasn’t driven by one isolated channel. Events budgets increased by a remarkable +14.7%, public relations spending rose for an eleventh consecutive quarter, direct marketing returned to growth, and businesses are forecasting further increases throughout the remainder of the financial year.
For me, that tells a very specific story.
Businesses aren’t becoming more optimistic about the economy – They’re becoming more determined to win.
The Businesses Growing Today Are Thinking Beyond Today’s Headlines
One of the privileges of running an agency like Outrank is that we get to see what’s happening across hundreds of businesses, industries and sectors at the same time.
Construction firms, accountants, solicitors, manufacturers, healthcare providers, e-commerce businesses, home improvement companies and professional services firms may all operate differently, but they often face the same economic conditions.
What’s fascinating is that the businesses performing strongest right now are rarely the ones waiting for certainty.
They’re the businesses investing despite uncertainty.
The reason is simple.
Business owners understand that market share doesn’t stand still.
If one company decides to pause its SEO campaign, stop publishing content, reduce its advertising spend or delay investment in its website, customers don’t suddenly stop searching. Those customers simply find somebody else.
- The companies appearing at the top of Google continue generating enquiries.
- The companies collecting reviews continue building trust.
- The companies investing in visibility continue strengthening their position.
In most sectors, there is no pause button. There is only forward or backwards.
Why The Bellwether Findings Matter For SMEs
Large corporations have always understood the importance of protecting market share whereas SMEs sometimes approach things differently.
When costs increase, marketing is often one of the first budgets to come under scrutiny. It’s understandable. Marketing is visible. It appears on a spreadsheet. Cutting it creates an immediate saving.
What isn’t visible is the opportunity cost.
- You don’t see the website visitor who never found you.
- You don’t see the enquiry that went to a competitor.
- You don’t see the prospect who searched Google and clicked on somebody else’s website because they appeared above yours.
The Bellwether report highlights an important shift in thinking. Even with economic growth forecasts weakening, businesses are continuing to invest because they recognise that visibility has become a competitive advantage in its own right.
In fact, one of the most encouraging findings in the report is that nearly 29% of businesses expect their marketing budgets to increase over the coming year, while only around 26% anticipate reductions. That may not sound dramatic on paper, but against the backdrop of wider economic uncertainty it demonstrates a clear willingness to invest for future growth.
The Rise Of Measurable Marketing
Another trend that jumped out at me was where businesses are choosing to spend their money.
We’re seeing continued growth in channels that can demonstrate a clear return on investment.
SEO, PPC, email marketing, website optimisation and customer retention strategies continue to attract attention because they provide accountability. Business owners want to know where their money is going and what it’s producing.
That’s particularly relevant for SMEs.
Twenty years ago, marketing often relied heavily on hope. Buy the advert. Sponsor the event. Run the campaign and see what happens.
Today’s businesses have access to far more data.
- They know where enquiries originate.
- They know which pages generate leads.
- They know which campaigns convert.
- As pressure on margins increases, measurable marketing becomes increasingly valuable.
The Real Risk Isn’t Spending Too Much
The real risk for many businesses over the next eighteen months may not be overspending on marketing.
It may be underspending.
History repeatedly shows that businesses willing to invest during periods of uncertainty often emerge with stronger market positions when confidence returns.
We’re already seeing evidence of that today.
The strongest businesses we work with aren’t necessarily the largest businesses.
- They’re the businesses that continue showing up.
- They continue publishing content.
- They continue improving their websites.
- They continue investing in customer acquisition.
- They continue strengthening their brands.
Meanwhile, some of their competitors remain frozen waiting for perfect conditions that never quite arrive.
What Happens Next
Personally, I think the Bellwether findings are telling us something much bigger than where marketing budgets are moving.
They’re revealing how business leaders are thinking about the next few years.
Every generation of business owners faces moments where uncertainty dominates the conversation. Economic slowdowns, inflationary pressures, political change, rising costs and shifting consumer behaviour are nothing new. What often separates the businesses that emerge stronger from those that stagnate is not the challenge itself, but how leadership chooses to respond to it.
The companies increasing their marketing investment today are not doing so because they believe the road ahead will be straightforward. They can see the same headlines as everyone else. They understand the pressures on margins, the increasing cost of employment and the caution that exists across many sectors of the economy.
What they also understand is that markets rarely stand still.
Customers will continue to buy. Businesses will continue to compete. Demand will continue to move between providers. The only real question is where that demand ends up.
History consistently shows that some of the most successful businesses are built during periods of uncertainty, not despite them but because of them. Whilst some organisations focus primarily on protecting what they have, others focus on positioning themselves for what comes next. They continue investing in visibility, customer relationships, brand strength and market share, recognising that these assets become increasingly valuable when competitors begin pulling back.
That is why I believe the most important statistic in the Bellwether Report is not the increase in marketing budgets itself. It is what sits behind it. A growing number of business leaders appear to have concluded that waiting for perfect conditions is not a strategy. They recognise that market share won today can create revenue streams for years to come, whilst visibility lost today can take years to recover.
For SMEs in particular, this matters enormously. Larger organisations often have the luxury of established brands, significant resources and wider customer bases. Smaller businesses rarely have that advantage. Visibility, reputation and consistency are often their greatest competitive assets. Allowing those assets to weaken during uncertain periods can create gaps that become increasingly difficult to close when confidence returns.
The Bellwether findings suggest that many UK businesses have already reached a simple conclusion:
The next few years will not be won by the businesses that retreat the furthest. They will be won by the businesses that continue moving forward with purpose, invest intelligently and position themselves to capture opportunities while others remain focused on the risks.
The question every SME owner should ask themselves is simple:
If your competitors are increasing their marketing investment, what happens if you don’t?